During the last recession, the Folks at Fox tried to dress up the bad news by claiming that the news was really good and the "Liberals" who owned the rest of the corporate media were only giving us the gloomier stories in order to talk down the economy and smear the glorious name of Emperor George. It seemed to me at the time, that the news was artificially upbeat; calling every 30 point up tick after a 500 point nose dive a "rebound" and it still seems to me that this morning's portion of frozen good cheer fits the pattern.
Retail sales, we're told, are up 0.3% for January after a dismal drop of 0.4% for last December. That's not really very dramatic in my opinion, or at least not enough so as to warrant the 100 point exuberance we see this morning. The Washington Post calls it a "dramatic rebound" none the less. Does it take some of the drama out of the numbers to learn that most of it resulted from the rise in gas prices and not from an increase in the amount of things Americans buy? The figures are not adjusted for price increases and so looking through the dark glass, inflation looks like prosperity.
Some spending undoubtedly results from the frigid weather which can influence people to retire that old car and maybe buy a warmer coat, but is it significant of a "rebound?" Maybe it depends on whether that bit of straw looks like a life ring to a drowning economy.
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4 comments:
Okay, the underlying indicators stink, stink, stink, but recessions also have a strong psychological component. Like "Panic." Now, sit on the couch and tell me what can be done to relieve your anxiety (you are allowed on the couch, aren't you?).
I'm not anxious at all. A recession won't affect me, so I think I'm being fairly objective. There has been so much weight put on our economy by the massive spending and borrowing that I think history will repeat itself.
I think history will repeat itself.
Specifically, a replay of the hyperinflationary 1970s made possible by ... you guessed it ... an unpopular war, budget deficits, and a looming sovereign debt crisis.
This time, all of the above plus a regulatory failure of massive proportions, a redistribution of wealth away from the middle classes, and a pervasive aura of unreality among the greedy power elite. Did I get it right, or is this just bloggo-jumbo?
All too depressingly clear
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