Talk softly and forget about that stick

It’s just possible that Bush’s biggest fear is that a movement toward Democracy or simply against tyranny will flower in the Middle East. After all, the countries we favor most are not democratic and some are monarchies so absolute that the kingdom that spawned the American experiment seems liberal in comparison.  Bush the elder went to war to preserve monarchy in Kuwait and has done nothing to promote the liberalization of that country since. Jordan is a monarchy and it would be hard to describe Saudi Arabia in terms that might suggest democracy or a move in that direction – yet Bush the lesser doesn’t seem to have been lecturing them on the subject, much less invading them.

And then there’s Egypt.  Whether or not a transition to something more closely resembling true Democracy, with tolerance for opposition and guarantees of liberty and justice for all, is possible without risk of war and chaos, I am not qualified to speculate about, but I will venture to say that even by our own weakened standards, Egypt is a brutal and repressive place.

The New York Times today, talks about corruption, cronyism, torture and political repression in Egypt. The polite conduct of Condoleezza Rice’s current visit to Egypt seems to illustrate that the US no longer wishes to be seen pushing Egypt to address such abuses. Amidst the chaos in the Middle East and the hatred of the US following Bush’s adventure in nation building (or oilfield grabbing if you prefer,) the preference for stability and avoidance of open hostility have strongly tempered messianic zeal.  While we openly support a variety of brutal and undemocratic régimes, according to the Times “The United States is so unpopular in the region now, many here say, that its support is enough to undermine a government’s legitimacy with its public.”

That we are no longer pushing for Democracy, if indeed we ever really were, can be seen as a strategy of avoiding further instability, but by non longer pushing for democracy in the interest of stability, we may be seen as supporting the kind of tyranny we were hated for supporting in the first place.

“The former pressure was an illusion and the lack of any pressure now will push the crisis between the people and their rulers to the edge,” said Ibrahim Eissa, the editor of Al Dustoor, a weekly newspaper of Egyptian opposition, and will increase the perception “that the United States is supporting democracy when it is in strict alliance with the oppressive regimes,”

Perhaps it’s not just in Iraq that any possible outcome is hard to describe as “winning” and victory is irrelevant.