omnis divisa in partes tres

There’s little doubt that no one has clear title to Afghanistan. The Taliban is gaining strength; the economy, such as it is, has everything to do with opium and drug lords and the terrorized citizenry is losing confidence in the overwhelmed occupying forces. Iraq, if it’s not already embroiled in a Civil War is embroiled in something sufficiently similar that arguments about the difference mostly reflect the bias of the observer. The “Stay the Course” slogan is becoming more ridiculous with the growing awareness that there is no course and there probably never was a course that wasn’t founded on fantasy or outright deceit.

Something is going to change and it may be rather soon; perhaps as soon as Rumsfeld can fashion a fitting euphemism for “cut and Run” and an Orwellian synonym for Victory. The growing disgust with and declining support for Bush’s War coupled with our lack of control over the occupied countries and their puppet “democracies” makes it inevitable.

It has been argued by some that the original “Neoconservative” intent of the invasion of Iraq was to start a process of fragmenting the most obstreperous Islamic states with the goal of reducing their ability to resist our petro-imperialist ambitions. Whether or not this is true, I’m no longer quite as alone in seeing the future of Iraq as three ethnic enclaves, one of which will require further efforts by the US to keep it from moving closer to an alliance with Iran.

The obstinate insistence upon using the absolute minimum of US forces in Iraq as well as the refusal to plan for an occupation gives weight to the argument for planned failure and although Bush insists that the Army was given all the troops it asked for, it does appear that only select generals were allowed to ask. Those who wanted to apply overwhelming force and to have a detailed plan for occupation are no longer employed.

Even though the Administration’s pet General Peter Pace tells us that Rumsfeld’s Inspiration comes directly from God’s lips, the odds are that God will reveal a new plan unto Don that will remind those of us who dabble in history of the British partitioning of the area in the early 20^th century. The Kurds may get the Kurdistan they have been waiting for, The Shia may inherit some barren but holy sand and the Sunnis will form the petroleum paradise so pleasant to the heart of Halliburton.

The Republicans after all have much to fear if they cannot stop the fighting. It may no longer be good enough to blame a withdrawal on hippies and Michael Moore and Bill Clinton. It has to look like a victory and it has to be soon; before the more traditional minority in the party throws out the neocons and the religious right and the crooks and incompetents and perverts and begins to refocus on restoring Habeas Corpus, an independent judiciary; on stopping the wild borrowing spree and restoring the checks and balances that have preserved some degree of liberty for over two centuries.